Jay Peterson
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Numbers

10/5/2015

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I'll admit I've been a bit cantankerous this weekend.
My favorite numbers bitch, on the other hand, went off the chain.
(Keep in mind, I have yet to catch this guy in a bad analysis)
"So the President wants to make it political? Fine.
I took the latest CDC county level intentional firearm homicide data set. This represents 72,851 firearm homicides over 7 years of data.(1) And of those, 50% of all firearm homicides occurred in 35 counties, or only 1% of all counties nationwide. Of those counties on average they voted 66,5% for Obama and 11 made the Daily Caller's "Top 100 Liberal Counties", a criteria which includes "State concealed-carry laws" as apparently a good thing.(2) (Irony?) Only one county voted strongly for Romney; Maricopa, AZ and another Duval, FL voted for Romney with a 47%-43% split.
So you want a firearm homicide rate per capita like Norway Mr. President? Get rid of these 33 heavily Democratic leaning counties, Maricopa and its crazy sheriff and the split-district of Duval and the per capita firearm homicide rate in the rest of the country drops to 1.71, which is the same as Norway's homicide rate. Except it'd be across 260M people (the new adjusted size of the country) and not 5M.
The new country formed by these 35 counties - Democraticstan - would have a population of ~60M and a per capita firearm homicide rate of 61.21, just shy of Honodurus and the 2nd highest death rate in the world.
How's them politics Mr. President?"
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The Aussie confiscation and lack of effect

10/4/2015

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Because I've already had one Aussie take my name in vain (Love you anyway, Jennie), I might as well address the Australian question, since I've seen it slung about this weekend.
Ignoring the cultural and size differences (24 million vs 300 million), they've kinda become a yardstick for people looking for something to compare it to.
In 1996, the Port Arthur massacre happened. It was huge by anyone's standards with 35 dead and 23 wounded. The only mass shooting that's even come close in my lifetime was sandy hook (27 killed, 1 injured, most of them children).
The resulting ban was more of a registration, licensing and buyback program (for those with guns they could no longer legally own).
The two big questions on everyone's mind:
1. Did it prevent mass shootings? and,
2. Did it at least prevent murders and other attacks?
The answer in both cases? Not really.
But that's because there weren't that many to begin with.
Here's a look at Australia's violent crime levels. If you look at the murder rate, it's dropped from a 1.7 in 1993 to 1.1 in 2011.
But that's only a drop from 333 in 1993 to 276 in 2011.
In fact, violent crime in all categories in Australia peaked in the years following the gun ban, dropping after 2001.
As for mass shootings, they still happened after the ban. The Monash university shooting is the most famous, but there's also the Wedderburn shooting, the Sydney hostage crisis last year. They're less common, but they still happen.
The tool of choice for mass murderers in Australia seems to have merely changed. Fire is the name of the game down under, with the Childers Palace backpackers fire, the Churchill fire, and the Quakers hill nursing home fire, all of with killed 10+ people apiece.
So, there you have it. Down under ain't here, and a ban didn't work for them in the first place. So quit acting like it did.

https://aic.gov.au/dataTools/facts/vicViolentCol.html

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Open Carry

10/3/2015

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I've never considered open carry to be a viable option for me personally. I've never done armed security work here in CONUS, and I don't believe I will. Culturally, tactically, and practically, it just doesn't make sense for me to do so.
But if there was a reason I would open carry?
To put a face to the issue.
So that every colleague who sneers at the idea of someone running towards gunfire has to look at someone willing to do it.
So that every panicky passerby can be treated to the sight of me going about my business, like everybody else.
So that everyone screaming every time it's led because it bled can have their rants, but can't ignore that they're railing against the quiet big guy. The one who's a hardcore Muppets fan, who habitually has a paperback on set.
When it can't be ignored. Because it's right there on my hip, clear as day.
Not to brandish.
Not to intimidate.
But not to hide either.
No mentally filing it away as something I did long ago and far away.
But something I do right now.
As I go about my business.
As I eat my meals.
As I hug and kiss my loved ones.
What would be said, when I was no longer hiding?
It's not going to happen.
But I'll admit I'm curious.
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Human legacy code

10/3/2015

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Human behavior has a lot of "legacy code" in it. Trace any human behavior back far enough, and you find a time when it was important. It may not be now, but if the effect is innocuous, who cares?
A British Knight might not need to keep his right arm free to attack opponents coming down the road at him, but an English man still drives on the left side of the road.
But what happens when the legacy code is malignant, and nobody noticed?
The phrase "boys will be boys," dates back to a time when boys who stepped too far out of line were guaranteed an ass whipping by the nearest adult witness, backed up by full force of society.
That no longer happens.
But the phrase remains.
To our detriment.
Unintended consequences.
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Still here

10/2/2015

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To be honest, the biggest reason for me sitting back and waiting to comment (after waiting for accurate info and letting the bodies cool) is dealing with the vitriol.
Because of the nature of my work and areas of expertise, I get a LOT of indirect hatred with every high publicized mass shooting.
A lot of it comes from people I at least respect, if not love. And a lot of it is really emotionally driven.
I get that. I try not to take it personally.
But that ain't easy. At all.
Ever looked at a fondly remembered old lover's feed and thought, "holy shit. If I'm that much of a godsdamn monster, how did you ever contain your revulsion long enough to repeatedly and enthusiastically ask me to put my dick in you?"
I've done that. More than once. Over this very issue. It hurts. In fact, it fucking sucks.
So if my answers get curt, well, sorry if you end up on the receiving end of that.
But realize that I burned through a lot of spoons to even get to looking you in the eye and answering your questions. Places where some of my contemporaries have given up trying to go.
But I'm still here.
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Do something!

10/2/2015

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So, to everyone who's let the phrase "we've got to do something!" or words to that effect pass their lips in the past 20 hours or so, I'd like to mention Ahmed.
Remember Ahmed? You stood with him. There was a hashtag.
Skinny runt from Texas, took apart a clock and put it in a shiny new case that looked a lot like an IED? Went to go play a game of poke-the-racist-authority-figure at his school? That one.
What happened to Ahmed on an official level is what happens when people, guided by emotion, make a tangible decision based on "we've got to do something!"
The "something" may or may not have stopped any bombs. But it sure made Ahmed's life lousy for a while.
But here's the thing. Most people who run afoul of "something" aren't like Ahmed. Most people who run afoul of "something" don't have a daddy who's balls-deep in a national lobbyist group. Most people who run afoul of "something" don't have their stories go viral.
Most people who run afoul of "something" just get fucked in the life a little harder. Whether that's suspension, expulsion, fines, jail time, or shit down the road.
So before you start being a hand-wringing herbivore and babble about "we've got to do something!" open your damn brain and spend some processing time actually THINKING about what "something" might be.
Remember Ahmed?
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    Jay Peterson

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